![]() ![]() Analysis of the first ice cores to be drilled to bedrock challenged the long-held belief that changes in climate occurred gradually over thousands of years, showing past climates to have changed substantially over centennial or even decadal time scales (e.g., Dansgaard et al. ![]() In 1966, three years after Lorenz’s insight into the nonlinearity of weather, the first real-world evidence of abrupt changes in the Earth’s climatic history were unearthed in Greenland ( National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2009). When he plotted his findings in phase space they resembled the wings of a butterfly, an iconic visualization from which the powerful “butterfly effect” metaphor would later be derived. His publication provided a mathematical demonstration of how small changes in weather conditions could trigger abrupt meteorological consequences-a demonstration of nonlinear atmospheric behavior. ![]() This way of thinking arguably emerged after 1963 when mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz published his famous research paper “Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow” ( Lorenz 1963). The idea that changes in the Earth’s climate system can be abrupt is not new. Abrupt climate change in science and society Moreover, a strong fatalistic narrative emerged from within abrupt climate change discourses, with frequent referrals to helplessness, societal collapse, and catastrophe.ġ. Yet many believed abrupt climate change to be capricious, irrespective of their psychometrically attributed worldviews or “ways of life.” Mitigation preferences-across all ways of life-were consistent with the “hegemonic myth” dominating climate policy, with many advocating conventional regulatory or market-based approaches. Supporting the predictions of cultural theory, egalitarians’ values and beliefs were consistently associated with heightened perceptions of the risks posed by abrupt climate change. Using cultural theory as an interpretative framework, a multimethodological approach was adopted in exploring these areas: 287 respondents at the University of East Anglia (UK) completed a three-part quantitative questionnaire, with 15 returning to participate in qualitative focus groups to discuss the issues raised in more depth. The authors focus on four key areas of risk perception: concern about abrupt climate change as distinct to climate change in general, the likelihood of abrupt climate changes, fears of abrupt climate changes, and preferences in how to mitigate abrupt climate changes. This article explores the influence of personal values and ontological beliefs on people’s perceptions of possible abrupt changes in the Earth’s climate system and on their climate change mitigation preferences. ![]()
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